THE KENYAN POLITICAL-MATURITY QUESTION.

The political heat wave is sweeping across Kenya with the flurry of presidential hopefuls trying to woo voters to their camps ahead of the country’s poll at a date yet to be confirmed. The election date had been dictated by the constitution as the second Tuesday of August every five years, but a cabinet sitting resolved that it would be impossible to hold the elections on the stipulated date, citing time constraints. The cabinet is now in the process of moving a bill to parliament that seeks to amend the election date to December.

This move has been faced with a lot of resistance by the civil society and some politicians, terming it as a plot by the government to ensure that they stay in power thereby unlawfully extending their term. This amidst recent polls show that most Kenyan’s would prefer the elections to be held in August as stipulated by the newly promulgated constitution.

What is set to be Kenya’s most historic election since her independence has attracted the largest number of hopefuls yet seen in the history of the country’s race to statehouse. The elections come in the wake of a new constitutional dispensation, which will see immense changes in the country’s system of governance.

In the race are some of Kenya’s renowned politicians as well as fresh entrants into the political scene. It is interesting though not surprising the heated debates that recent poll ratings of various candidates are eliciting from different quarters.

In a country where the voting lines are fast changing, it has become very tricky for analysts to predict exactly how Kenyans are going to elect the next holder of the country’s top office. Speculation is the best shot one can take, seeing as Kenyans have previously voted along tribal lines and from the influence of powerful politicians.

 This trend has however been seen to change during the various by-elections held in the recent past. The same was also the case during the referendum to vote in the new constitution. Kenyan’s are seen to have made their independent decision, despite all the pressure and influence  coming from powerful quarters and the religious front for a ‘NO’ vote.

It is this very factor that analysts are unsure if to interpret as political maturity on the side of Kenyans, or if the bug of tribal politics could come biting again come 2012. There are two likely scenarios to this tale, where the first could see Kenyans vote along tribal lines as was the case in previous elections. The second scenario could see the electorate, as was the case in the referendum and the by-elections; make an informed and independent decision. This will result to voting in a candidate by virtue of their impressive track- record and noble agenda for the country, as well as having an immaculate CV devoid of scandals and corruption allegations.

Whichever scenario plays out, everyone is watching with anticipation as the political drama, unfolding with every new dawn, promises to keep keen followers fascinated for quite some time.